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Industry News

A Radio Revenue Forecast from Kagan? You Bet

Radio+Television Business Report
3 years 7 months ago

A “deluge of ads” from expanded legalized sports betting and the return of midterm political ad spending in 2022 are expected to aid U.S. broadcasters’ rebound from the
pandemic. But, that is inclusive of Television. How is radio shaping up?

Justin Nielson, a Senior Research Analyst for broadcast media at S&P Global Market Intelligence’s Kagan group is poised to deliver much insight on Tuesday (11/15) at Forecast 2022 in New York.

Ahead of the event, which you can still register for here, Nielsen offered some top-line takeaways for where Radio revenues will likely be in a year. Nielson’s key insight: Radio station business is expected to bounce back from the pandemic-induced recession, but with an important caveat.

 

“Expected growth of 6.2% to $15.75 billion in 2022 is still only a partial recovery given the deep 23% decline in 2020, with revenues falling to $13.68 billion,” Nielson says. “Radio ads are predominantly local and focused on the auto, retail, travel and entertainment categories, which were heavily impacted by the advertising pullback.”

Radio also must compete with “multiple” streaming and on-demand options for music and talk and is “hindered” by the new hybrid or permanent work-from-home economy, which has greatly reduced commuting hours during prime in-car radio time.

This counters Nielsen data (no relation to Justin Nielson) that suggest radio’s consumption recovery is all but complete from the depths of pandemic-induced quarantines.

Despite those headwinds, Nielson of Kagan points to radio’s “lower ad cost, local audience and relatively high return on investment compared to other media.”

This, Nielson says, should help Radio maintain its share of the U.S. advertising market.

Adam Jacobson

Eliminate local AM caps but don’t touch FM

Radio World
3 years 7 months ago

iHeartMedia thinks the FCC should eliminate the restriction on how many AM stations one company can own in a given market. But it opposes the “overly aggressive” proposal by the National Association of Broadcasters to raise or eliminate the similar cap on FM stations.

The company believes that within broadcast radio, AMs face a “growing and distressing competitive disadvantage” to FM stations, despite the role played by AMs in national security communications and the “outsized place of AM stations as trusted sources of local news and information.”

That has been iHeart’s position for some time. Now the company has reiterated its stance in a September filing with the FCC. The commission had invited comments to update its record in the still-open 2018 quadrennial review of media ownership rules.

This is an excerpt of the summary section of iHeart’s filing:

Emphasizing the continuing role of AM radio as an important source of news, iHeart provided graphics like this one, demonstrating a surge in AM listening in Dallas during a serious weather freeze.

Legal developments subsequent to the closing of the original comment period in this proceeding have strengthened significantly the bases for iHeart’s earlier advocacy.

The twisting course of the litigation challenging the commission’s 2010/2014 Quadrennial Reviews has left the regulatory landscape as it was when the commission received comments and reply comments. Importantly, however, there has not been a meaningful opportunity to ascertain the impact on the marketplace of either the substantial deregulation effectuated by the commission’s November 2017 Order on Reconsideration or its August 2018 Order establishing the Incubator Program.

[See Our Business and Law Page]

The Supreme Court decision reversing the Third Circuit reaffirmed the commission’s reasonable exercise of its authority in applying the broad public interest standard governing Quadrennial Reviews, implicitly rejecting the argument that competition should be the predominant criterion for determining whether to retain, modify or repeal broadcast regulations.

The antitrust actions against Facebook and Google filed by the FTC and the Department of Justice, joined by the vast majority of state attorneys general, also have significant implications for this proceeding.

In the complaints in these cases, the federal government and the states have been explicit in arguing that the relevant advertising markets for the Big Tech companies are separate and distinct from the television and radio broadcast advertising markets and that broadcast radio and television are not substitutable for the social media and search services and related advertising markets of Facebook and Google.

Thus, the federal and state governments have taken the same position utilizing the same analytical framework regarding the relevant market as iHeart has advanced in this proceeding.

Finally, on July 9, 2021, President Biden signed an “Executive Order on Promoting Competition in the American Economy,” reflecting the administration’s view that excessive market concentration is harmful to competition.

Of particular relevance to the instant proceeding, the Executive Order encouraged agency heads to pay particular attention to the influence of regulations on concentration in industries within their jurisdiction. Adoption of the NAB’s proposal would be inconsistent with the thrust of the Executive Order on Competition.

“Seismic events”

While these legal developments are directly relevant to this proceeding, the seismic events that have challenged our nation in the past two years also have a bearing on its outcome.

The COVID-19 pandemic, the pervasiveness of misinformation and disinformation on social media and hundreds of internet websites and its disruptive effect on our political processes, and a reawakening about the role race plays in our society following the murder of George Floyd, have underscored the critically important role broadcast radio plays in our country’s life.

Consistent with the examples highlighted in iHeart’s Comments, empirical listening data during the past two years continued to demonstrate that people tune to their local radio stations, especially AM stations, in times of heightened concern, both with respect to local, natural or human-caused disasters and at moments of acute national crisis. Broadcast radio has been an indispensable source of official and factual information about the COVID-19 pandemic, including how best to avoid infection, where to get tested, local and regional infection rates, hospital capacity and the importance, efficacy and availability of vaccines.

[Related: More Change for Radio Ownership Rules?]

Regarding the reexamination of the role of race in American society, iHeart launched the Black Information Network (BIN) in 2020, a 24/7 comprehensive, national, audio Black news service dedicated to providing a trusted source of continual news coverage with a Black voice and perspective. iHeart already has repurposed more than 30 local stations serving large Black populations, the majority of which are AM stations, to be additive to — but not directly compete with — existing Black-owned radio stations.

We continue to support the FCC’s Incubator Program, believing that it should be afforded a meaningful opportunity to succeed in enhancing ownership of broadcast properties by women and minorities, an outcome that would be at risk were FM ownership limits to be relaxed or eliminated.

In light of the increased centrality of broadcast radio to our national information and communications infrastructure, sustaining its economic viability, particularly the more financially vulnerable AM band, should be of paramount concern to the FCC.

Whether measured by numbers of stations on air, audience listening or advertising revenue, broadcast radio has suffered from the broader economic fallout of the COVID-19 pandemic.

On the other hand, there are promising signs that broadcast radio will rebound, including the broader economic recovery, portending increased advertising, and dramatically increased driving in recent months, likely translating into greater audience listening.

It is premature, however, to predict the extent and contours of that recovery, and it is too soon to have reliable, empirical, economic data upon which the commission could make predictive judgments.

“Targeted, moderate”

The net effect of these developments is that the positions taken by iHeart in its Comments and Reply Comments ring as true today — indeed, more so — as when we conveyed them to the commission more than two years ago. Accordingly, the commission should adopt a targeted, moderate approach to reforming the local radio ownership rules by eliminating only the limits on AM stations while retaining the current limits on FM stations.

Doing so will avoid the potentially catastrophic harm that could befall AM stations were the commission to adopt the NAB proposal to deregulate substantially the FM band. Moreover, by maintaining the current FM subcap limits, the commission will ensure that the financial incentives essential to the success of the Incubator Program remain in place. The commission should be guided by the overarching principle of doing no harm.

iHeart’s filing went on to develop these arguments in more detail. You can read a PDF of the full filing at https://tinyurl.com/rw-ihm-2.

Comment on this or any article. Write to radioworld@futurenet.com.

The post Eliminate local AM caps but don’t touch FM appeared first on Radio World.

RW Staff

RadioDNS Welcomes Nielsen’s Gracenote Into Organization

Radio World
3 years 7 months ago

The Nielsen company Gracenote, which supports content search and discovery capabilities on entertainment platforms, has joined RadioDNS.

As part of its membership duties, Gracenote will collaborate with manufacturers and broadcasters to develop open standards to support the future of hybrid radio and boost listener engagement in connected cars.

“We’re very pleased to be welcoming another key supplier in the automotive industry to our membership, and one that already handles a great deal of metadata and content,” said Nick Piggott, project director of RadioDNS, in the announcement. “The breadth and depth of our coalition of members means we can draw on relevant and practical experience to develop open standards that respond to real-work requirements.”

[See Our Business and Law Page]

According to the company, Gracenote powers infotainment experiences in 120 million cars, providing music metadata and imagery to help drivers and passengers connect with audio content safely. The Gracenote MusicID system identifies music in real time and serves up relevant song, artist and album information to the car’s on-screen display. The Gracenote Radio Station ID system works in a similar manner, enabling graphically rich displays, while Gracenote Audio On Demand delivers a standardized descriptive dataset for podcasts to improve search capabilities.

RadioDNS said that as a member, Gracenote will engage with broadcasters, manufacturers and technology providers to help define the organization’s technical standards and create standards for new hybrid radio functionalities.

According to Maryann Faricy, senior director of product, automotive, at Gracenote, the company has a sizable footprint in the automotive and consumer electronics sectors and will help RadioDNS better position the organization to influence the future of radio and in-car entertainment experiences.

Comment on this or any article. Email radioworld@futurenet.com.

The post RadioDNS Welcomes Nielsen’s Gracenote Into Organization appeared first on Radio World.

Susan Ashworth

WANN Big Buy for Philip Falcone

Radio+Television Business Report
3 years 7 months ago

The Delaware corporation headed by the former CEO of HC2 Holdings has struck again.

The Philip Falcone-led Sovryn Holdings has struck a deal that will see it add a digital Class A television station in a top DMA to its growing list of properties, pending FCC approval.

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Adam Jacobson

Sinclair Locks In a New Dish Deal

Radio+Television Business Report
3 years 7 months ago

In August 2012, the broadcast TV station ownership group and the direct broadcast satellite company were headed to a “blackout” due to an impasse on a retransmission consent agreement. It was averted.

In August 2015, negotiations went sour, and a “blackout” transpired — one that saw the DBS provider file a “good faith” complaint at the FCC against the broadcast company. Days later, however, an agreement was reached.

Three months ago, history was set to repeat itself. That didn’t happen. This morning, the companies ensured it won’t for a few more years.

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Adam Jacobson

Western Maryland MVPD Inks Nielsen Measurement Deal

Radio+Television Business Report
3 years 7 months ago

A full-service telecommunications company owned by Schurz Communications since 1968 has reached a multi-year agreement for local TV measurement.

It’s a deal that will see Nielsen’s data support the Western Maryland-based MVPD’s ability to determine the individual local performance of the cable networks that it represents and the audience that each network delivers.

At the same time, it is a tale of small MVPD divergence, as a rural Kentucky telecommunications company has opted to phase out its cable television services by handing it to Dish Network via a partnership agreement.

Inking the deal with Nielsen is Antietam Broadband, which serves customers in Washington County, Md., a part of the Washington, D.C. DMA that includes Hagerstown.

For Antietam, the Nielsen data give it the capability to price its inventory based on Nielsen local TV ratings data. For small and independent MVPDs, this could be crucial for continuing such services, rather than taking the road of the Kentucky MVPD.

Antietam Broadband Director of Media Services Tony Heaton cited Nielsen’s addition of Broadband Only (BBO) measurement. “We are also excited about Nielsen’s commitment to impressions in local TV, which will benefit not only us, but the entire industry,” he said.

Nielsen Local TV EVP/Managing Director Catherine Herkovic commented, “Antietam’s support and enthusiasm for impressions based buying further demonstrates this need across the industry, and we are looking forward to continuing to empower them with the insights that will enable them to go to the next level of advertiser effectiveness with their clients.”

Adam Jacobson

With Sohn Block On In Congress, A Call To Legislate

Radio+Television Business Report
3 years 7 months ago

The controversy over “net neutrality” advocate Gigi Sohn’s nomination to the FCC is the talk of Washington — and will be a key topic of discussion tomorrow at Forecast 2022.

As American Enterprise Institute (AEI) nonresident senior fellow Daniel Lyons sees it, these nomination battles could be less frequent — and less important — if the focus of legislative decision-making was shifted from agencies like the FCC back to Congress.

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Adam Jacobson

OTT Competition For Screen Time Poised to Increase

Radio+Television Business Report
3 years 7 months ago

Attention, broadcast TV station owners and managers: Streaming growth has stalled, and the fight for streamers is now to retain subscribers.

That’s the big takeaway from research released late last week by Kantar, which says this fight for retention will be heightened between now and the end of the year. Can broadcasters perhaps benefit from this, in particular with their digital multicast and/or OTT offerings?

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RBR-TVBR

Spoken Word Listenership Increases 40% Since 2014

Radio World
3 years 7 months ago

This week, we’re taking a look at NPR/Edison Research’s new report on spoken word audio.

“The Spoken Word Audio Report” shows steady growth in spoken word audio consumption since 2014.

How much has spoken word’s share of audio listening grown over the past 12 months? The short answer, a lot. For the third year, NPR and Edison Research have joined forces to produce “The Spoken Word Audio Report.” The results were presented at a Nov. 11 webinar led by Lamar Johnson, vice president of sponsorship marketing at NPR, and Megan Lazovick, vice president at Edison Research.

The survey defines spoken word audio as anything other than music, i.e., news, sports, talk/personalities and audiobooks. According to the research, of the 40 percent growth in spoken word listening over the past seven years cited by the survey, 8 percent took place in the past 12 months. That translates to 22 million more people listening to spoken word than eight years ago.

While music is still the overwhelming content of choice, the research suggests that spoken word is steadily chipping away at that lead. In 2014, music commanded 80 percent of listenership and spoken word got 20 percent. In 2021, those numbers shifted to 28 percent for spoken word and 72 percent for music.

[See More RW Articles About Changing Audiences]

No matter how you break it down, the report claims that the share of time spent listening from 2014 to 2021 has increased across the board. When tracked by gender, men showed an increase from 26 to 32 percent, up 23 percent. One of the big surprises of this report was the increase among women, from 14 to 24 percent, an impressive 71-percent jump.

Not surprisingly, the youngest demographic showed the highest increase. Those in the 13 to 34 bracket had a gain of 116 percent, according to the report. Those aged 35–54 saw a 36 percent jump from 22 to 30 percent, while the 55+ demographic went up from 26 to 28 percent, an 8 percent uptick.

According to the NPR/Edison report, multicultural listeners are a key driving force in the expansion of spoken word audio. Those identifying as white/other saw a 26 percent increase from 23 to 29 percent, while African-American listenership increased 12 to 22 percent, up 83 percent. The Hispanic/Latino population listening to spoken word went up from 15 to 27 percent, an 80 percent jump.

Comment on this or any article. Email radioworld@futurenet.com.

The post Spoken Word Listenership Increases 40% Since 2014 appeared first on Radio World.

Tom Vernon

WPEL Set To Grow With Williamsport Signal

Radio+Television Business Report
3 years 7 months ago

A Class B1 religious FM serving Williamsport, Pa., is being spun.

The buyer is another broadcast ministry presently serving audiences along New York’s Southern Tier, and to the west in the Twin Tiers of Pennsylvania and New York. As such, this deal is a natural growth opportunity for the soon-to-be new owner.

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Adam Jacobson

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